EM iterates over ! We start by focusing on the change of log p(x|theta)-log p(x|theta(t)) when update theta(t). However, since the EM algorithm is an iterative calculation, it easily falls into local optimal state. Let’s illustrate it easily with a c l ustering … Similarly, for the 2nd experiment, we have 9 Heads & 1 Tail. We can rewrite our purpose in the following form. Example: ! The intuition behind EM algorithm is to rst create a lower bound of log-likelihood l( ) and then push the lower bound to increase l( ). In this section, we derive the EM algorithm on … As saw in the result(1),(2) differences in M value(number of mixture model) and initializations offer different changes in Log-likelihood convergence and estimate distribution. Example 1.1 (Binomial Mixture Model). An effective method to estimate parameters in a model with latent variables is the Estimation and Maximization algorithm (EM algorithm). The third relation is the result of marginal distribution on the latent variable z. Given data z(1), …, z(m) (but no x(i) observed) ! The EM algorithm can be viewed as two alternating maximization steps, that is, as an example of coordinate descent. E-step: For i=1,…,m fill in missing data x(i) according to what is most Suppose that we have a coin A, the likelihood of a heads is θA. But what if I give you the below condition: Here, we can’t differentiate between the samples that which row belongs to which coin. We denote one observation x ( i) = {xi, 1, xi, 2, xi, 3, xi, 4, xi, 5, } This term is taken when we aren’t aware of the sequence of events taking place. Real-life Data Science problems are way far away from what we see in Kaggle competitions or in various online hackathons. By bias ‘Θ_A’ & ‘Θ_B’, I mean that the probability of Heads with 1st coin isn’t 0.5 (for unbiased coin) but ‘Θ_A’ & similarly for 2nd coin, this probability is ‘Θ_B’. In the above example, w_k is a latent variable. The EM algorithm helps us to infer(conclude) those hidden variables using the ones that are observable in the dataset and Hence making our predictions even better. Now using the binomial distribution, we will try to estimate what is the probability of 1st experiment carried on with 1st coin that has a bias ‘Θ_A’(where Θ_A=0.6 in the 1st step). Set 5: T H H H T H H H … 1) Decide a model to define the distribution, for example, the form of probability density function (Gaussian distribution, Multinomial distribution…). Let’s go with a concrete example by plotting $f(x) = ln~x$. We try to define rule which lead to decrease the amount of log p(x|theta)-log p(x|theta(t)). Randomly initialize mu, Sigma and w. t = 1. We modeled this data as a mixture of three two-dimensional Gaussian distributions with different means and identical covariance matrices. Hands-on real-world examples, research, tutorials, and cutting-edge techniques delivered Monday to Thursday. We can simply average the number of heads for the total number of flips done for a particular coin as shown below. There are two phases to estimate a probability distribution. Let’s take a 2-dimension Gaussian Mixture Model as an example. F. Jelinek, Statistical Methods for Speech Recognition, 1997 M. Collins, The EM Algorithm, 1997 J. Coming back to EM algorithm, what we have done so far is assumed two values for ‘Θ_A’ & ‘Θ_B’, It must be assumed that any experiment/trial (experiment: each row with a sequence of Heads & Tails in the grey box in the image) has been performed using only a specific coin (whether 1st or 2nd but not both). The algorithm follows 2 steps iteratively: Expectation & Maximization. * X!) Equation (1): Now, we need to evaluate the right-hand side to find a rule in updating parameter theta. Most of the time, there exist some features that are observable for some cases, not available for others (which we take NaN very easily). Now, our goal is to determine the parameter theta which maximizes the log-likelihood function log p(x|theta). And next, we use the estimated latent variable to estimate the parameters of each Gaussian distribution. 95-103. Binary Search. Here, we will be multiplying that constant as we aren’t aware of in which sequence this happened(HHHHHTTTTT or HTHTHTHTHT or some other sequence, there exist a number of sequences in which this could have happened). The EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm is ideally suited to problems of this sort, in that it produces maximum-likelihood (ML) estimates of … EM-algorithm Max Welling California Institute of Technology 136-93 Pasadena, CA 91125 welling@vision.caltech.edu 1 Introduction In the previous class we already mentioned that many of the most powerful probabilistic models contain hidden variables. This is one of the original illustrating examples for the use of the EM algorithm. Now we will again switch back to the Expectation step using the revised biases. The EM algorithm has many applications throughout statistics. On 10 such iterations, we will get Θ_A=0.8 & Θ_B=0.52, These values are quite close to the values we calculated when we knew the identity of coins used for each experiment that was Θ_A=0.8 & Θ_B=0.45 (taking the average in the very beginning of the post). “Full EM” is a bit more involved, but this is the crux. Hence Probability of such results, if the 1st experiment belonged to 1st coin, is, (0.6)⁵x(0.4)⁵ = 0.00079 (As p(Success i.e Head)=0.6, p(Failure i.e Tails)=0.4). Therefore, to maximize the left-hand side of Equation(1), we just update theta(t) with a value of theta(t) which maximizes the first term of the right-hand side of Equation(1). EM algorithm The example in the book for doing the EM algorithm is rather di cult, and was not available in software at the time that the authors wrote the book, but they implemented a SAS macro to implement it.   Consider the function: F ( q , θ ) := E q ⁡ [ log ⁡ L ( θ ; x , Z ) ] + H ( q ) , {\displaystyle F(q,\theta ):=\operatorname {E} _{q}[\log L(\theta ;x,Z)]+H(q),} Find maximum likelihood estimates of µ 1, µ 2 ! To do this, consider a well-known mathematical relationlog x ≤ x-1. “Classiﬁcation EM” If z ij < .5, pretend it’s 0; z ij > .5, pretend it’s 1 I.e., classify points as component 0 or 1 Now recalc θ, assuming that partition Then recalc z ij, assuming that θ Then re-recalc θ, assuming new z ij, etc., etc. Therefore, if z_nm is the latent variable of x_n, N_m is the number of observed data in m-th distribution, the following relation is true. AMultinomialexample. In the example states that we have the record set of heads and tails from a couple of coins, given by a vector x, but that we do not count with information about which coin did we chose for tossing it 10 times inside a 5 iterations loop. For example, in the case of Gaussian distribution, mean and variance are parameters to estimate. Here, consider the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) as an example. 15.1. Θ_B = 0.58 shown in the above equation. ˆθMLE = arg max θ n ∑ i = 1logpθ(x ( i)) ^ θ MLE = arg max θ n ∑ i = 1 log p θ ( x ( i)) We use an example to illustrate how it works (referred from EM算法详解-知乎 ). 1 The Classical EM Algorithm We can make the application of the EM algorithm to a Gaussian Mixture Model concrete with a worked example. 2) After deciding a form of probability density function, we estimate its parameters from observed data. The probability shown in log-likelihood function p(x,z|theta) can be represented with the probability of latent variable z as the following form. Another motivating example of EM algorithm — 6/35 — ABO blood groups Genotype Genotype Frequency Phenotype AA p2 A A AO 2 p A O A BB p2 B B BO 2 p B O B OO p2 O O AB 2 p A B AB The genotype frequencies above assume Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Ascent property: Let g(y | θ) be the observed likelihood. Let the subject of argmax of the above update rule be function Q(theta). Therefore, in GMM, it is necessary to estimate the latent variable first. Explore and run machine learning code with Kaggle Notebooks | Using data from no data sources But in ML, it can be solved by one powerful algorithm called Expectation-Maximization Algorithm (EM). We will draw 3,000 points from the first process and 7,000 points from the second process and mix them together. For a random sample of n individuals, we observe their phenotype, but not their genotype. Random variable: x_n (d-dimension vector) Latent variable: z_m Mixture ratio: w_k Mean : mu_k (d-dimension vector) Variance-covariance matrix: Sigma_k (dxd matrix) Set 4: H T H T T T H H T T(4H 6T) 5. In this case, the variables which represent the information that cannot be obtained directly from the observed data set are called Latent Variables. From this update, we can summary the process of EM algorithm as the following E step and M step. Like. From the result, with the EM algorithm, the log-likelihood function always converged after repeat the update rules on parameters. If not, let’s have a recapitulation for that as well. Consider Blue rows as 2nd coin trials & Red rows as 1st coin trials. Suppose I say I had 10 tosses out of which 5 were heads & rest tails. Therefore, we have the following outcomes: 1. 2 EM as Lower Bound Maximization EM can be derived in many different ways, one of the most insightful being in terms of lower bound maximization (Neal and Hinton, 1998; Minka, 1998), as illustrated with the example from Section 1. Set 1: H T T T H H T H T H(5H 5T) 2. Working with a stochastic approach based-machine learning, we consider the information origin as a type of probability distribution. The points are one-dimensional, the mean of the first distribution is 20, the mean of the second distribution is 40, and both distributions have a standard deviation of 5. Now once we are done, Calculate the total number of Heads & Tails for respective coins. So the basic idea behind Expectation Maximization (EM) is simply to start with a guess for $$\theta$$, then calculate $$z$$, then update $$\theta$$ using this new value for $$z$$, and repeat till convergence. Therefore, we decide a process to update the parameter theta while maximizing the log p(x|theta). Make learning your daily ritual. For refreshing your concepts on Binomial Distribution, check here. Now, what we want to do is to converge to the correct values of ‘Θ_A’ & ‘Θ_B’. We can calculate other values as well to fill up the table on the right. Model: ! Our current known knowledge is observed data set D and the form of generative distribution (unknown parameter Gaussian distributions). Stefanos Zafeiriou Adv. Interactive and scalable dashboards with Vaex and Dash, Introduction to Big Data Technologies 1: Hadoop Core Components, A Detailed Review of Udacity’s Data Analyst Nanodegree — From a Beginner’s Perspective, Routing street networks: Find your way with Python, Evaluation of the Boroughs in London, UK in order to identify the ‘Best Borough to Live’, P(1st coin used for 2nd experiment) = 0.6⁹x0.4¹=0.004, P(2nd coin used for 2nd experiment) = 0.5⁹x0.5 = 0.0009. An example: ML estimation vs. EM algorithm qIn the previous example, the ML estimate could be solved in a closed form expression – In this case there was no need for EM algorithm, since the ML estimate is given in a straightforward manner (we just showed that the EM algorithm converges to the peak of the likelihood function) EM algorithm is an iteration algorithm containing two steps for each iteration, called E step and M step. Examples that illustrate the use of the EM algorithm to find clusters using mixture models. The EM algorithm is particularly suited for problems in which there is a notion of \missing data". Here, we represent q(z) by conditional probability given recent parameter theta and observed data. You have two coins with unknown probabilities of To solve this problem, a simple method is to repeat the algorithm with several initialization states and choose the best state from those works. But if I am given the sequence of events, we can drop this constant value. By the way, Do you remember the binomial distribution somewhere in your school life? EM Algorithm on Gaussian Mixture Model. W… The missing data can be actual data that is missing, or some ... Before we get to theory, it helps to consider a simple example to see that EM is doing the right thing. As we already know the sequence of events, I will be dropping the constant part of the equation. Similarly, If the 1st experiment belonged to 2nd coin with Bias ‘Θ_B’(where Θ_B=0.5 for the 1st step), the probability for such results will be: 0.5⁵x0.5⁵ = 0.0009 (As p(Success)=0.5; p(Failure)=0.5), On normalizing these 2 probabilities, we get. $\begingroup$ There is a tutorial online which claims to provide a very clear mathematical understanding of the Em algorithm "EM Demystified: An Expectation-Maximization Tutorial" However, the example is so bad it borderlines the incomprehensable. As the bias represented the probability of a Head, we will calculate the revised bias: ‘Θ_A’= Heads due to 1st coin/ All Heads observed= 21.3/21.3+8.6=0.71. Our purpose is to estimate theta from the observed data set D with EM algorithm. θ A. . We can still have an estimate of ‘Θ_A’ & ‘Θ_B’ using the EM algorithm!! •In many practical learning settings, only a subset of relevant features or variables might be observable. This result says that as the EM algorithm converges, the estimated parameter converges to the sample mean using the available m samples, which is quite intuitive. Using this relation, we can obtain the following inequality. It is usually also the case that these models are A. Bilmes, A Gentle Tutorial of the EM Algorithm and its Application to Parameter First, let’s contrive a problem where we have a dataset where points are generated from one of two Gaussian processes. 4 Gaussian MixtureWith Known Mean AndVariance Our next example of the EM algorithm to estimate the mixture weights of a Gaussian mixture with known mean and variance. EM basic idea: if x(i) were known " two easy-to-solve separate ML problems ! One considers data in which 197 animals are distributed multinomially into four categories with cell-probabilities (1/2+θ/4,(1− θ)/4,(1−θ)/4,θ/4) for some unknown θ ∈ [0,1]. Variations on this EM algorithm have since resulted … Goal: ! $\endgroup$ – Shamisen Expert Dec 8 '17 at 22:24 A useful example (that will be applied in EM algorithm) is $f(x) = ln~x$ is strictly concavefor $x > 0$. To get perfect data, that initial step, is where it is decided whether your model will be giving good results or not. This can give us the value for ‘Θ_A’ & ‘Θ_B’ pretty easily. Intro: Expectation Maximization Algorithm •EM algorithm provides a general approach to learning in presence of unobserved variables. To easily understand EM Algorithm, we can use an example of the coin tosses distribution.​​ For example, I have 2 coins; Coin A and Coin B; where both have a different head-up probability. Then I need to clean it up a bit (some regular steps), engineer some features, pick up several models from Sklearn or Keras & train. Before being a professional, what I used to think of Data Science is that I would be given some data initially. where w_k is the ratio data generated from the k-th Gaussian distribution. In the case that observed data is i.i.d, the log-likehood function is. Rewrite this relation, we get the following form. The following gure illustrates the process of EM algorithm… The binomial distribution is used to model the probability of a system with only 2 possible outcomes(binary) where we perform ‘K’ number of trials & wish to know the probability for a certain combination of success & failure using the formula. constant? It is often used for example, in machine learning and data mining applications, and in Bayesian statistics where it is often used to obtain the mode of the posterior marginal distributions of parameters. We will denote these variables with y. Using theta(t) to calculate the expectation value of latent variable z. However, to solve 2) we need the information on which Gaussian distribution each observed data is generated from, and this information is not directly shown in the observed data. On Normalizing, the values we get are approximately 0.8 & 0.2 respectively, Do check the same calculation for other experiments as well, Now, we will be multiplying the Probability of the experiment to belong to the specific coin(calculated above) to the number of Heads & Tails in the experiment i.e, 0.45 * 5 Heads, 0.45* 5 Tails= 2.2 Heads, 2.2 Tails for 1st Coin (Bias ‘Θ_A’), 0.55 * 5 Heads, 0.55* 5 Tails = 2.8 Heads, 2.8 Tails for 2nd coin. Then, each coin selection is followed by tossing it 10 times. Our data points x1,x2,...xn are a sequence of heads and tails, e.g. We can translate this relation as an expectation value of log p(x,z|theta) when theta=theta(t). The first and second term of Equation(1) is non-negative. In the following process, we tend to define an update rule to increase log p(x|theta(t)) compare to log p(x|theta). To derivate the update relation of w, we use Lagrange method to maximize Q(theta|theta(t)) subject to w_1+w_2+…+w_M=1. Suppose bias for 1st coin is ‘Θ_A’ & for 2nd is ‘Θ_B’ where Θ_A & Θ_B lies between 0